Measuring Running Back Efficiency Through Explosiveness

Amidst the contract extension deadline, the value of running backs has been repeatedly questioned within NFL circles. Teams are reconsidering whether running backs are worth premium capital, as seen with 2022 Pro Bowlers Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. Furthermore, recent analytics and salary cap studies heavily scrutinize teams that do decide to select running backs early in the draft or hand out rich second contracts to backs. As a result, running backs over the age of 30 on expensive contracts are considered a major red flag for durability and financial reasons. The Kansas City Chiefs, for example, have operated without a Pro Bowl-caliber running back over the Mahomes era and have still been to 3 Super Bowls over the past five years with a premier NFL offense. Despite this, running backs can elevate an offense and provide schematic value to teams as a component that can take a team to the next level, as seen with the Philadelphia Eagles, who are not afraid to acquire RBs at the right cost. So what is the sweet spot for RB investments? 

While taking a shot on a free agent back can work for a team, investing efficiently in the draft can lead to blossoming returns, especially for running backs. More importantly, investing in backs with high explosiveness is critical for NFL teams. One of the more relied-upon measures of explosiveness has been RYOE (Rush Yards Over Expected), a statistic that generates expected rushing yards based on factors such as age, down and distance, offensive line PFF grade, defensive YPC, etc. RYOE can show how much explosion a running back has to provide by seeing how many extra yards they add to their expected number per carry. The graph below represents running back RYOE (using Tej Seth’s public RYOE calculation) in the 2022 season as an independent variable and EPA from the 2022 year as the dependent explanatory variable. The figure shows that RYOE has a strong positive correlation to EPA per rush, deeming it a helpful statistic in measuring RB skill and explosiveness.

Some prominent names that led the league in RYOE in 2022 were Travis Etienne, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, and Tony Pollard. While RYOE measures on-field explosiveness, I wanted to dive deeper into other ways teams can find such explosiveness when evaluating running backs. Using RAS athletic testing data, I created an explosiveness grade, which assigns a number out of 10 to a back based on an equal weightage of their 10-yard split RAS score and vertical jump RAS score. I looked at 2022’s statistically best RBs to see if teams could apply this explosiveness grade. 

The 2022 league average in the explosiveness grade was 6.38, a number that 6 out of the 8 top backs in EPA per play achieved when doing their athletic testing. Seven of these eight backs had a positive RYOE, an on-field indicator of explosiveness alongside their high testing grades. Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, and Christian McCaffrey are all familiar names that make sense in this visual, but the table also highlights some underrated backs like Jeff Wilson and AJ Dillon. For further reference, last year’s class featured numerous backs with grades above the 6.38 average, including rising stars Kenneth Walker, Dameon Pierce, and James Cook, as well as Breece Hall and Rachaad White, who achieved elite explosiveness grades(all grades above eight are considered elite). 

Another important factor I noticed here was that only one back out of this top 8 was drafted in the 1st round, a critical point in determining the most efficient method to acquire running back talent. Considering backs with high explosiveness are available late in the draft, like Tyler Allgeier, Jeff Wilson, and Aaron Jones (all drafted during or after the 5th round), teams may be better suited to invest in running backs in the mid to late-round of the draft rather than investing in free agency or early in the draft.

The average draft round of running backs with 125+ carries in 2022 was 2.79, so roughly the 25th pick of the 2nd round in the NFL Draft. This year that would’ve been the 56th pick, with a cap number of 1.172M. This is even cheaper than Rashaad Penny’s deal with the Eagles(1/1.35M). Judging by the numbers given above and financial implications, this gives teams another reason to search for explosive, efficient backs in later rounds of the NFL Draft. Applying this explosiveness grade to this year’s draft class can give us insight into who can stand out in the NFL. Below is a table showing all the players in this year’s draft class that have signed to a team with an elite explosiveness grade. 

Bijan Robinson and Zach Charbonnet stand out among these names as players drafted early and backed up by the numbers. However, this method also helps identify late-round gems like Israel Abanikanda, whose explosiveness metrics suggest he could succeed as a rotational back in the Jets’ offense. Tyjae Spears and Evan Hull are also mid to late-round names that could blossom into solid players in the future. Obviously, these methods don’t account for playing time, as most of these players will be depth players early in their careers. Chase Brown, however, is one player who stood out to me the most. Brown was a late-round pick for Cincinnati, whose explosiveness testing (9.76 Explosion grade) could push him over the top in the Bengals scheme. With question marks surrounding Joe Mixon and the departure of Samaje Perine in the offseason, the Bengals’ offense will need a prominent RB2. Zac Taylor’s offense often uses multiple RBs, and Brown’s athletic traits suggest he could fill in the shoes of Perine and maybe even add more to his plate as the season progresses. In the long run, Brown’s rookie deal could also make him a more favorable option, especially considering Joe Mixon’s $8.46M cap hit in 2023 and $8.5M cap hit in 2024. 

Observing explosiveness through the combine can be another vital nuance that can aid in player evaluation. Front offices could benefit from this as combined testing allows prospects of all talents and skill levels to have a level playing field where everyone has the same opportunity to succeed. While tape will and should reign supreme, an analytical look at the combine may yield positive returns, especially when determining how much capital to allocate to a position like the modern-day running back. 

Photo Credits: Getty Images